Solar Power Continues to Surge in 2024

Analysis of national monthly data for solar capacity additions shows that the world will – once again – beat forecasts, even though expectations are higher than ever.

Ember’s analysis of the latest data on monthly capacity installations shows that the world is on track to reach 593 GW of solar installations by the end of this year. This would once again surpass most industry forecasts, and comes after 2023 showed record growth in solar installations of 86% compared to 2022. Countries need to plan ahead to make the most of the high levels of solar capacity being built today and ensure the continued build-out of capacity in the coming years.

The world is on track to add 593 GW of solar power this year.

Ember estimates that at the current rate of additions, the world will install 593 GW of solar panels this year. That’s 29% more than was installed last year, maintaining strong growth even after an estimated 87% surge in 2023. In 2024, an estimated 292 GW of solar capacity was installed by the end of July.

The world is on track to install 29% more solar capacity in 2024 than it did last year, despite unprecedented growth in 2023.

Estimated global year-to-date solar additions by month (GW).

Ember analysed the latest monthly solar capacity data for 15 countries, accounting for 80% of solar installations in 2023. Capacity additions in these countries increased by 29% in January to July this year, compared to the same period last year. If this 29% growth rate continues until the end of this year, they will install 478 GW.

For the remaining countries, this report uses exports of solar panels from China up to July 2024 to estimate what will be installed throughout 2024. This analysis suggests that 115 GW (with a range of 81-149 GW) of solar capacity will be installed in the rest of the world in 2024. That is a rise of 29% compared to 2023 and reflects high additions from new markets such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

Widespread solar growth is on display around the world.

11 of the 15 countries for which Ember is tracking monthly capacity data are showing a larger number of installations this year than the year before.

Solar installations have so far been higher in 2024 for most countries with available data.

In China, the country with the largest solar fleet, solar additions for January-July 2024 were 28% higher than in the same period in 2023. Meanwhile, solar capacity installations in India in the first seven months of 2024 are 77% higher than in the same period in 2023. In the US, new solar additions in January-June 2024 are 55% higher than in January-June 2023.

Capacity data from European countries showed continued growth in solar installations, albeit at a more modest pace than in previous years for some countries. In Italy, the EU’s third largest solar market in 2023, installations are up by 41% in the January-July period. Germany and the United Kingdom are showing more modest market growth of 11% for the same period, compared to January-July 2023. Portugal has installed twice as many solar panels in the first seven months of the year as it did in the same period in 2023, but in absolute terms it is still a small market compared to other countries that Ember tracks. Although Poland showed lower installations in January-June 2024 than in the same period in 2023, they were still four times higher than in the first half of 2019.

China continues to install more than half of the world’s solar power in 2024.

At the current rate of capacity additions, China is on track to add 28% more solar capacity than in the previous year. If this rate of additions is sustained, it would lead to a total installed capacity of 334 GW, making up 56% of global capacity additions for 2024.

This rate of growth is only slightly below the rest of the world, meaning China’s share of global installations for 2024 is estimated to be similar to last year when it accounted for 57% of global installations. Last year marked a significant change in China’s solar power deployment. It installed more in 2023 than the entire world did in 2022. In 2022 and 2021, its share of global additions was smaller, at 42% and 34% respectively.

In 2024, China will again account for more than half of global solar capacity installations.

Five countries contribute three-quarters of estimated solar capacity additions in 2024.

The combined additions of China, the United States, India, Germany and Brazil are on track to make up 75% of global solar additions in 2024.